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DAILY UPDATES. BELOW: MY TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN OF THE S&P500/SPY. ALONG WITH TRADING STRATEGIES, (AT THE BOTTOM FOLLOWING MY CONCLUSION).

For Monday 3/31/25. Technical Breakdown of SPY. Moving averages: The 9-day SMA is below the 18-day SMA, but both are starting to flatten, which could signal a bottoming pattern if price moves higher. Volume: Volume on the bounce is moderate—not overly convincing yet, but not weak either. Keep an eye on this. Bollinger Bands. SPY bounced off the lower Bollinger Band recently and is now attempting to climb back toward the middle band. If SPY can close above the middle band with strength, it could trigger a momentum continuation trade toward the upper band (~$595–$600 range). MACD. We have a bullish MACD crossover just below the zero line—this is often an early signal that momentum may be turning bullish. Histogram bars are shrinking toward zero, confirming that downside momentum is fading. RSI (Relative Strength Index). RSI is rising from oversold territory, currently near the mid-40s. This suggests that there's still upside room before hitting overbought levels (>70). CONCLUSION. Short-term Bullish Bias. How to Trade It Using SPY. Conservative Bullish Play. Trade: Buy ITM (in-the-money) SPY calls Example: $560 calls, expiring April 26. Aggressive Bullish Play. Trade: Buy OTM (out-of-the-money) SPY calls. Example: $580 calls, exp. April 19. Spread Strategy (defined risk). Trade: Bull call spread. Buy SPY $565 call / Sell SPY $580 call. Hedge Strategy. Use a call spread and offset it with a small SPY put position. Or do a call debit spread and put credit spread combo (iron condor variant if you expect a range).

Technical breakdown of the USO (United States Oil Fund) with ways to trade it.

Monday, 3/31/25. Price Action. USO has rebounded off the $71–$72 support zone, showing higher lows and a slow climb back toward the $75–$76 area. The recent candlesticks suggest bullish follow-through with strong closes near the highs of the day. Moving Averages. 9-day SMA is beginning to curl upward and is close to crossing above the 18-day SMA, a potential bullish crossover. This indicates short-term momentum may be shifting in favor of the bulls. Bollinger Bands. Price is riding the middle band (20-day moving average) and slowly expanding to the upside. The Bollinger Bands are starting to widen slightly after a period of contraction — often a precursor to a more significant move. Price action has stayed in the upper half of the band, another bullish sign. The MACD line has crossed above the signal line, a bullish crossover. The histogram is moving from negative toward zero, reinforcing this upward shift in momentum. Still below the centerline (0), suggesting early stages of a trend reversal rather than a full-on breakout. RSI (Relative Strength Index). RSI is currently in the mid-50s, turning upward. This indicates room to run before hitting overbought territory (70+). A positive divergence from earlier lows in RSI and price adds strength to the bull case. Volume. Volume remains relatively muted, though no major distribution days are present. Slight uptick in volume on green days — modest accumulation. CONCLUSION. Bullish Bias (short to medium term). Trade Ideas Using USO or Options. Conservative Bullish Trade. Buy Shares of USO. Bullish Options Trade. Call Debit Spread. Buy USO $75 Call, Sell $80 Call expiring in ~30 days. Short-Term Swing (Momentum Trade). Buy to Open $76 Call 2–3 weeks out.

Technical breakdown of GLD with trading strategies.

Monday 3/31/25. Price Action. GLD is in a strong, sustained uptrend, with a clean series of higher highs and higher lows. Most recent candles show continued momentum with GLD pressing toward new highs near $285+. There’s no current sign of exhaustion — price is trending along the upper Bollinger Band. Moving Averages. Both the 9-day SMA and 18-day SMA are sloping sharply upward. Price is currently riding above both moving averages, confirming strong bullish momentum and trend alignment. Bollinger Bands. The price is riding the upper Bollinger Band, which often happens during strong uptrends. Bands are expanding, suggesting continued volatility and momentum, not compression or reversal. No signs of upper-band rejection yet — price is not pulling back. MACD is in positive territory, and although the histogram is flattening, it still supports bullish momentum. The MACD line is above the signal line, though the spread is narrowing slightly. Early signs of a pause, but no crossover yet — trend remains intact. Relative Strength Index (RSI). RSI is currently in the high 60s, approaching overbought territory but not extreme. RSI has maintained above 50 for weeks, a sign of a strong bullish trend. No bearish divergence seen, though RSI flattening may imply temporary consolidation ahead. Volume is steady, not overly euphoric, and confirms the legitimacy of this upward move. CONCLUSION. Bullish (with caution for short-term consolidation). Trade Ideas (Using GLD). Call Debit Spread (Options). Bullish Call Spread: Buy GLD $285 call, sell GLD $295 call. Momentum Trade (Breakout). Aggressive trade strategy. Bullish Trade Idea: Buy GLD Long Calls, Strike: $290. Expiration: 3–4 weeks out (near-term, but enough time for the move).

Technical breakdown of Bitcoin and XRP.

Monday, 3/31/25. Bitcoin. Short-term momentum has improved, potentially extending the rally for another week or two. However, intermediate-term momentum remains downward, increasing the risk of a fleeting rebound. Given the current technical setup, the outlook for Bitcoin appears cautiously bearish in the intermediate term, with potential for short-term relief rallies. XRP. The technical analysis suggests a bearish outlook for XRP, with potential for further decline if support levels are breached.

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