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DAILY UPDATES. BELOW: MY TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN OF THE S&P500/SPY. ALONG WITH TRADING STRATEGIES, (AT THE BOTTOM FOLLOWING MY CONCLUSION).

For Thursday, 4/17/25. Technical Breakdown. SPY remains in a downtrend, trading below both the 9-day and 18-day moving averages, which are downward sloping. Bollinger Bands/ Price is hugging the lower half of the Bollinger Band range. The bands are still wide indicating volatility remains elevated. MACD line is climbing back up but still below the signal line and zero. This shows early bullish momentum, but not yet a strong buy confirmation. RSI is near 50, which is a neutral zone. Suggests market is undecided could swing either direction from here. Volume/ Recent volume spikes during big red candles indicate institutional selling. Bullish or Bearish Call? Short-Term Bias: Cautiously Bearish. Potential Short-Term Trades (Options-Based). Bearish Setup. Trade Idea: Buy SPY Put Debit Spread. Buy: SPY $530 Put (1–2 weeks out). Sell: SPY $515 Put. Bullish Alternate (Risk Controlled). Trade Idea: Sell SPY Put Credit Spread. Sell: SPY $510 Put. Buy: SPY $500 Put.

Technical breakdown of the USO (United States Oil Fund) with ways to trade it.

For Thursday, 4/17/25. Technical Breakdown. Price is now consolidating just below the 18-day moving average (~$68), with the 9-day SMA acting as minor resistance. The overall trend, however, remains bearish unless we see a break above the ~$70–$71 range. Bollinger Bands. The price is now reverting toward the midline, typical of a relief rally. However, unless price can sustainably pierce and hold above the middle band, this could simply be a bounce within a broader downtrend. The MACD is rising but still below the signal line and in negative territory. This shows short-term bullish momentum is forming, but it’s not yet confirmed. RSI has recovered from deep oversold levels and now hovers around ~45. There’s room for further upside before hitting overbought, but it's still in the lower half of the range caution warranted. Volume. Recent volume spikes on down days indicate heavy distribution on the way down. The bounce is occurring on relatively lighter volume, which is not ideal for a sustained reversal. Bullish or Bearish Call. Short-Term Outlook: NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY BEARISH. Potential Short-Term Trades. Bearish Setup. Play: Buy PUTS if USO fails to break above $70 and rolls over. Strike & Expiry: $67–$65 puts expiring in 1–2 weeks. Bullish Setup (Cautious Play). Buy CALLS only if USO breaks and holds above $71 on strong volume. Strike & Expiry: $72–$74 calls expiring in 2–3 weeks.

Technical breakdown of GLD with trading strategies.

For Thursday, 4/17/25. Technical Overview. The uptrend is intact and aggressive GLD is riding the upper Bollinger Band, printing new highs daily. Volume is expanding into strength this confirms conviction behind the move. Big money is rotating into gold, not fading it. MACD (Momentum). Bullish crossover occurred early April. The histogram is rising again after a brief consolidation. MACD line is turning up with strong positive divergence. Momentum is accelerating. RSI (Relative Strength). Currently pushing toward the 80 level. Yes, this is overbought, but in strong bull trends, RSI can remain elevated for extended periods. Short-Term Trades (1–7 Days Outlook). Momentum Bull Trade. Entry: $306–$308 (post-breakout continuation). Quick Fade (Aggressive/Short-Term Only). Entry: $308–$310. The Call. GLD is behaving like a flight-to-safety beacon amidst macroeconomic chaos. The chart screams confidence from institutions. A brief breather is possible but barring a sharp reversal, gold looks poised for continued strength. The world is losing faith in fiat, and the chart reflects that.

Technical breakdown of Bitcoin and XRP with outlook projection.

For Thursday, 4/17/25. Bitcoin. Bullish but short-term cautious. XRP. Neutral-Bullish coiling.

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