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DAILY UPDATES. BELOW: MY TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN OF THE S&P500/SPY. ALONG WITH TRADING STRATEGIES, (AT THE BOTTOM FOLLOWING MY CONCLUSION).

For Friday, 4/04/25. Technical Breakdown/ Price Action & Candlesticks. SPY recently bounced off a sharp downtrend and pushed up to the midline of the Bollinger Bands (approx. $570 zone) but has now rejected and is heading lower. Current candle looks like an inverted hammer following a small rally, potential reversal warning, especially since it appeared at the top of a short rally. Lower highs and lower lows are clearly in play, bearish structure still intact. Moving Averages. 9-day and 18-day SMAs are both downward sloping and acting as dynamic resistance. The rejection near those levels further confirms weakness. No bullish crossover on SMAs yet. no confirmed trend reversal. Bollinger Bands. Price is caught between the mid-band and lower band, indicating consolidation within a broader downtrend. The volatility is compressing slightly, hinting a possible bigger move in the next few sessions. MACD is rising and just crossed the signal line, but it is still below the zero line. This is an early bullish signal, but with weak momentum for now, needs follow-through. RSI (Relative Strength Index). RSI bounced from oversold and is now around 45–50 range—this is neutral, but still below the bullish threshold (>50). Suggests potential for upside, but no confirmation of strength yet. Volume has been dropping during the rebound phase; this is a red flag. Rallies on low volume are not to be trusted, smart money doesn’t chase low-volume bounces. CONCLUSION. Cautiously Bearish. Until SPY proves otherwise with volume and trend reversal confirmation, the bounce looks more like a relief rally within a bearish trend. Trade Ideas Using SPY. Conservative Bearish Trade. Buy SPY puts: May 17 expiration, $565 or $560 strike. Aggressive Bearish Trade. Put spread: Buy SPY May 17 $565 puts, sell $550 puts to reduce premium. Neutral/Range-Bound Trade. Iron Condor using $575/$585 calls and $550/$540 puts for May 17, if expecting chop. Flip Bullish Only If SPY breaks and closes >$575 with volume, confirming trend reversal.

Technical breakdown of the USO (United States Oil Fund) with ways to trade it.

For Friday, 4/04/25. Technical Breakdown of USO (United States Oil Fund). Price Action & Candlestick Pattern. Strong recent uptrend from mid-March through the start of April. Today's candle appears to be a bearish engulfing pattern, which, after a short-term rally, can indicate potential for a pullback or consolidation. Price recently broke above both the 9-day and 18-day SMAs, confirming bullish momentum, though today's candle challenges that strength. Moving Averages. The 9-day SMA is crossing above the 18-day SMA, which is a bullish crossover, generally supportive of upward movement. However, prices are approaching the upper Bollinger Band, signaling a potential short-term overbought condition. Bollinger Bands. Price touched and briefly pierced the upper band, often a sign of short-term exhaustion. Bands are expanding, which reflects increasing volatility and typically precedes a continuation in the trend after a brief pause. The MACD line has crossed above the signal line, confirming bullish momentum. Histogram is growing positively, suggesting increasing bullish sentiment. However, the slope is flattening, hinting that momentum could be stalling in the near term. Relative Strength Index is currently around 65–70, nearing overbought territory (above 70). This doesn't mean a reversal is guaranteed but signals that the asset may need to cool off before another leg higher. CONCLUSION. Short-Term: Cautiously Bullish. Very Near-Term (Next 2–3 sessions): Possible pullback or consolidation. The trend is up, but a brief consolidation or pullback is likely based on the candlestick pattern, RSI, and upper Bollinger Band proximity. Trade Ideas Using USO or Options. Conservative Long: Buy shares or a June USO 75 Call with time to let the trend play out. Aggressive Bullish Option Play: April 19th USO 77 Call if you expect momentum to resume quickly. Consider a bull call spread: Buy 77 Call, Sell 80 Call to reduce cost.

Technical breakdown of GLD with trading strategies.

For Friday, 4/04/25. Price Action & Candlestick Pattern. GLD has been in a strong uptrend since mid-January. The recent candles show tight bullish formations with small upper wicks, suggesting controlled buying and minimal selling pressure. The latest candle appears to be forming a doji or spinning top, hinting at short-term indecision, not a reversal yet, but worth monitoring closely. Moving Averages. SMA(9) and SMA(18) are both pointing sharply upward, confirming the strength of this uptrend. The 9-day is well above the 18-day, and price is significantly above both, a classic bullish alignment. Bollinger Bands. GLD is hugging the upper Bollinger Band, signaling that it's in a momentum-driven move. However, this also warns of potential short-term overextension, as price is near the upper band’s edge, which historically can precede a consolidation or pullback. MACD line is above the signal line and rising again after a minor dip, suggesting bullish momentum is resuming. Histogram bars are increasing again, which reinforces the bullish momentum building. RSI is near 70, indicating overbought conditions. While this can persist in strong trends, it’s also a potential caution sign for shorter-term traders. Volume has steadily increased alongside the price move; this confirms strength behind the rally. A large green volume bar in the most recent session suggests institutional participation or strong buying interest. CONCLUSION. Bullish (with caution). GLD is in a confirmed uptrend with momentum, but short-term overbought conditions could lead to a pullback or sideways movement before further gains. Trade Ideas Using GLD. Swing Trade (Aggressive). Buy GLD shares or calls on any dip. Options Trade (Moderate Risk). Buy April 26th $290 Calls. Options Trade (Conservative). Buy May $280/$290 Call Spread.

Technical breakdown of Bitcoin and XRP with outlook projection.

For Friday, 4/04/25. Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Breakdown. Currently consolidating just below a major resistance zone, likely near $70K. Price is forming higher lows, signaling underlying strength despite short-term volatility. Volume decreasing slightly, which is typical in pre-breakout phases. RSI hovering just below overbought, not yet in reversal territory, suggesting room to climb. MACD is still above the signal line, though converging, momentum slowing, but not reversing yet. Moving averages (especially 20 and 50 EMA) are in solid alignment to the upside. Bullish or Bearish? Bullish. Still healthy. As long as BTC holds key support (around $66K–$67K), the chart favors a continuation toward fresh highs. XRP Technical Breakdown. XRP remains in a broad consolidation range. RSI mid-range (~50), indicating neutrality, not overbought or oversold. MACD just turned positive, early momentum shift. Volume is still low. Bullish or Bearish? Cautiously Bullish.

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